OXFORD — The recruiting rankings will tell you that Kermit Davis had the players to succeed at Ole Miss.
Five of the top 20 recruits in program history, according to 247Sports ratings, began the 2022-23 season on Ole Miss' roster, including the top two: Matthew Murrell and Daeshun Ruffin. Two more have signed National Letters of Intent to play for the Rebels next season.
But, as of Friday morning, Davis is out. The Rebels are 6-27 in regular-season SEC games dating back to the beginning of last season. They have not beaten a top-100 KenPom opponent in their last 15 attempts, got swept by Mississippi State this season and endured an embarrassing home loss to North Alabama. They haven't been to the NCAA Tournament since Davis' first season in 2018-19.
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A program that has consistently recruited the high school ranks well enough to reside in the SEC's middle tier has gotten nowhere close to that since a seventh-placed finish in 2020-21.
Change was necessary. And Ole Miss Athletic Director Keith Carter struck in a timely manner, ensuring he's the first guy in line at this offseason's coaching carousel. At 2-13 in the SEC, nothing short of a miracle run in the SEC Tournament would have been enough to change the outcome of Ole Miss' season.
So how did we get here? What's the discrepancy between the high school talent the Rebels have brought in and the product they've put out?
It starts with the transfer portal, where Davis and the Rebels have consistently lost more than they've brought in. You just need to look around the state to see the portal's power. In Starkville, Chris Jans has Mississippi State on the bubble in year one with a roster built largely around transfers – both his own and players brought in the season before. In Hattiesburg, Jay Ladner has Southern Miss turned from Conference USA cellar dweller into Sun Belt title contender with nine transfer additions.
Especially this season, the players Ole Miss has brought in have largely lacked major impact. The players Ole Miss has sent out have often gone on to perform better than they did in Oxford.
None of the three transfer forwards Davis acquired this offseason have averaged more than six points or five rebounds per contest, though it should be noted that Josh Mballa has been dealing with injuries just about all season. NAIA transfer Myles Burns has been much better lately but didn't play especially well at the onset of SEC play.
Meanwhile, Jarkel Joiner, who was a solid contributor for the Rebels after they added him in 2020 from Cal State Bakersfield, has gone on to score 17 points per game this season at NC State after departing Oxford this offseason. Austin Crowley took a step down in competition to move to Southern Miss, but has upped his scoring average by 11.3 points and his field goal percentage has risen from 39% to 47%. Luis Rodriguez is a double-figure scorer for UNLV.
Casting small-scale arguments about the schedule's impact on those numbers aside, it's clear that Davis lost that exchange. And it cost him.
Some degree of roster fluctuation is almost a given when the Rebels find their new head coach. If that coach can bring in more talent than he lets out, there's no reason Ole Miss can't compete – and quickly. Jans' early success with the Bulldogs is one of several examples of that throughout the nation.
Certainly, it would be unfair to Davis not to acknowledge that he had some rotten injury luck, especially as it relates to Ruffin, the only McDonald's All-American ever to sign with Ole Miss. Ruffin suffered a knee injury last season and was never the same when he returned, eventually stepping away from the program to focus on his mental and physical health.
But the Rebels had no Plan B. At least, not one that was suited to the win-now reality of Davis' situation. Outside of a brief burst of brilliance in the nonconference schedule, neither Amaree Abram nor TJ Caldwell have been ready to play a starting role as freshmen.
And so Ole Miss basketball stumbled along, always grinding hard enough to make games close but lacking the offensive firepower to win them. A new head coach has been the apparent destination for the Rebels for weeks. It was just a matter of how quickly they got there.
David Eckert covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at deckert@gannett.com or reach him on Twitter @davideckert98.
